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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Thursday, 27 September 12
MINING RE-COMMENCES AT ORPHEUS' B2 EAST KALIMANTAN COAL PROJECT
- B2 project overburden removal completed and coal exposed
- Coal getting has commenced with target production of 30,000tpm
- Orpheus to re ...
Thursday, 27 September 12
HANDY: THE PACIFIC MARKET IS GETTING WEAKER WITH UPCOMING GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Yet another week with rates softening in all trades. Especially owners with ships open Continent struggle to find employment paying decent mo ...
Thursday, 27 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES STEAM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The rise of the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the dry bulk industry’s benchmark during the course of the previous week, proved to be short-lived, as ...
Wednesday, 26 September 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY REMAINS SUBDUED ON GLOBAL MARKET UNCERTAINTY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding ordering activity has been on the down side during the past few weeks, a trend also noticeable during the course of the past few days, a ...
Sunday, 23 September 12
AN ANOTHER UNSTABLE WEEK FOR INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.10 percent and 0.916 percent WOW and DOD respectively ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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