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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Wednesday, 10 October 12
TAPPING OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN GLOBAL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
Press Release: Mining sector will continue to play a significant role in supporting industrial and economic development in Indonesia which is curren ...
Tuesday, 09 October 12
REALM RESOURCES RECOMMENCES DRILLING AT KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com : Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX) has announced that it has commenced work on the phase three technical programme at its Katingan Project in ...
Sunday, 07 October 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA FELL AGAIN IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price has lost US$ 0.17 per MT M-M.
The monthly coal referen ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER'13 DELIVERY GAINED 1.3 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery gained 0.098 percent and 0.164 percent W-W and D-D respectively o ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
FREIGHT MARKET IS LIKELY TO PICK AFTER THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market appeared to be seeing some increase BDI up by 14.23 pct closing at 875 points. The Cape and Panamax index also saw ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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