We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
|
|
|
Showing 4551 to 4555 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
|
| |
| |
|
