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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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