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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Sunday, 23 September 12
INDIA IMPORTED 11.40 PERCENT MORE INDONESIAN COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 26,451,565* tons of coal in August 2012, compared to 27.88* mill ...
Saturday, 22 September 12
SOFT BUNKER PRICES KEEP INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHTS STABLE - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market overall remained buoyant with all indices up except for Panamax index. The main effect seems to be increased shipm ...
Friday, 21 September 12
SHIP BREAKING ACTIVITY REACHES NEW RECORDS, AS ALREADY 2012 LEVELS HAVE SURPASSED THE WHOLE OF 2011 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The vast oversupply of vessels, most notably in the dry bulk shipping sector, has forced ship owners to intensify their efforts towards recycling th ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
SUPRAMAX : INDO-INDIA ROUNDS WERE AROUND USD 12K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Not a bad week for Supramax tonnage, if we compare Supramax developments to the bigger size tonnage. The rates have basically remained unchan ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
DRY BULK INCHES FORWARD AFTER WEEKS OF BELOW PAR PERFORMANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has started to revive from its ashed, as the past couple of days, traders have reported an increased activity from China, result ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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