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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Sunday, 23 September 12
INDIA IMPORTED 11.40 PERCENT MORE INDONESIAN COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 26,451,565* tons of coal in August 2012, compared to 27.88* mill ...
Saturday, 22 September 12
SOFT BUNKER PRICES KEEP INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHTS STABLE - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market overall remained buoyant with all indices up except for Panamax index. The main effect seems to be increased shipm ...
Friday, 21 September 12
SHIP BREAKING ACTIVITY REACHES NEW RECORDS, AS ALREADY 2012 LEVELS HAVE SURPASSED THE WHOLE OF 2011 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The vast oversupply of vessels, most notably in the dry bulk shipping sector, has forced ship owners to intensify their efforts towards recycling th ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
SUPRAMAX : INDO-INDIA ROUNDS WERE AROUND USD 12K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Not a bad week for Supramax tonnage, if we compare Supramax developments to the bigger size tonnage. The rates have basically remained unchan ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
DRY BULK INCHES FORWARD AFTER WEEKS OF BELOW PAR PERFORMANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has started to revive from its ashed, as the past couple of days, traders have reported an increased activity from China, result ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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