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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Wednesday, 19 September 12
CHURCHILL STRENGTHENS LITIGATION TEAM WITH APPOINTMENT OF NICHOLAS SMITH AS MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Churchill Mining PLC (AIM: CHL) has announced that, Mr Nicholas Smith has joined the board of the Company and has been appointed as t ...
Wednesday, 19 September 12
DRY BULK TERMINALS SINGAPORE
Press Release - Dry bulk terminals are used all around the world to handle large quantities of bulk materials, like minerals, grains, etc. In today& ...
Tuesday, 18 September 12
JORC CODE REVISION - EXPOSURE DRAFT RELEASED FOR COMMENT
COALspot.com - The Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC) has today released for public comment the exposure draft of the JORC Code (2012) ...
Monday, 17 September 12
YEAR TO DATE, BUMA PRODUCED 231.1 MILLION BCM OF OVERBURDEN
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk has removed 31.5 million bcm (+6.0 percent YoY) overburden in August 2012 totaled 31.5 million bcm ( ...
Sunday, 16 September 12
GLOBAL LOW DEMAND ; INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.345 percent W-O-W on Friday, 14 September 2012, closing but gai ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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