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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Friday, 12 October 12
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES OCCUR IN THE SECOND HAND VESSEL MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although 2012 has by now evolved into one of the most challenging years for global shipping industry, ship owners are scouting the second hand ship ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
SINGAPORE BASED COAL SOURCE AND SHIPPING BAGS 300K MT IMPORTED COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - India-based paper manufacturer Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited has awarded a tender for 300,000 mt of imported steam co ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
PANAMAX : SINCE LAST WEEK RATES HAS FIRMED FOR ALL TRADES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to East Med were around USD 14k and B ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY AFTER CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet staged a solid rebound after last week's holidays in China, as many would have expected. Indeed, many analysts were ...
Wednesday, 10 October 12
NEW BUILDING MARKET ON A QUIET WEEK, DUE TO ASIAN HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The newbuilding ordering activity has been more than quite during the course of the past week, as a result of holidays in both Korea and China. Acco ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
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