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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rat ...
Monday, 15 October 12
IT'S STRICTLY COME CHARTERING - CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
The charter market is a bit of a dance between ship owner and charterer: one leader, one follower; one step, two steps, turn... The dance is symbiot ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: SOFT
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery lost 0.329 percent w- w but gained 0.248 percent d-d on Friday, 12 Oct ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT STEADY: PANAMAX FREIGHTS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market saw some hectic activity in the Cape and panamax sector and quite a lot of fixtures reported.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 12 October 12
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT OF PIRACY? - BIMCO
The threat of modern piracy remains serious, regardless of its seasonal variations and the fact that it is chiefly confined to the Indian Ocean, Gul ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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