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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Tuesday, 30 October 12
NEW BUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY KEEPS ON RETREATING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have refrained from placing any new orders of vessels during the course of the past few days, according to shipbroker reports. According ...
Monday, 29 October 12
US COAL EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 125 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - EIA
COALspot.com - US coal exports are expected to reach 125 million tons this year, surpassing the old record of about 113 million tons set in 1981, sa ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS (FOB ) FOR DECEMBER 2012 DELIVERY STAYED FLAT D-D
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery flat on D-D but gained 0.38 percent on W-W on Friday, 26 October 2012, ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The Cape size sector continued to remain active with iron ore movement being steady. All other sectors were down.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 26 October 12
SHIPPING MARKETS HEADING FOR DIVISION AND MULTI-TIER WILL BECOME THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It seems that something is expected to be fundamentally different in the way that the shipping markets will be operating in the future, according to ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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