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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Tuesday, 06 November 12
NOVEMBER 2012 HBA $35.21 LOWER THAN A YEAR AGO
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for November’ 12 has lost US$ 4.60 per MT M-o-M.
...
Sunday, 04 November 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER' 12 DELIVERY FALLS TO $ 59.78
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery fell -1.02 percent on WoW but gained 0.08 percent on D-D on Friday, 2 ...
Saturday, 03 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week the market remained soft with all the sectors soft.
The BDI and was down by 6 pct closing at 986 points. The cape index ...
Saturday, 03 November 12
DEMOLITION IS THE KEY FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the number of new building deliveries so far in 2012 already having surpassed the total of 2011, it's more than clear that the dry bulk sector ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
INDONESIA HAS REVISED DOWN ITS 2012 DOMESTIC MARKET OBLIGATION REQUIREMENT FOR COAL
COALspot.com - Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down its 2012 domestic market obligation requirement due to lower d ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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