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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Friday, 09 November 12
SHIP OWNERS TURN TO SECOND HAND VESSELS, WHICH COME AT ATTRACTIVE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The attractiveness of modern second hand vessels, which are often priced aggressively can't be ignored by cash-rich ship owners, who are taking adv ...
Thursday, 08 November 12
LARGE ECO SUPRA : INDO - INDIA NOW FIXED AT USD 11K FOR DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market continues to remain weak with rates further softening on FH. Rates from USG to Feast were around USD 14k and Black Sea to ...
Thursday, 08 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS AGAIN ON HIGHER SHIP SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In further evidence of a latest round of dry bulk shipping misery, the industry's benchmark fell for the 11th straight session yesterday, as the in ...
Thursday, 08 November 12
JOIN CHINA STEAM COAL SUPPLY - DEMAND FORUM
Join China Steam Coal Supply-Demand Forum & Visit Shenhua Yudean Zhuhai Port Coal Terminal
Press Release - Organized by CBI BIZ and suppo ...
Wednesday, 07 November 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY ON A STEADY PACE PRIOR TO THE END OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders, which to many involved in the shipping industry, are the main reason of today's low freight rates and subsequent financial prob ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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