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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Thursday, 01 November 12
SOUTH KOREAN POWER UTILITY EWP TO PURCHASE 670,000 MT OF COAL FOR JAN - FEB 2013 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd. on behalf of Korea South-East Power Co. Ltd., Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd., Korea Midland Power Co. Lt ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
KOMIPO LOOKING FOR 440,000 MT OF 4600 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies or traders to supply of 440,000 Metric ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
CAPESIZE RATES FALL, DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It was another lackluster session yesterday in the dry bulk markets, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating by 1.63 p ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES ARE AT AROUND USD 5,000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND USD 4000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to a lack of cargoes and an increased supply of ships. Rates from the Continent to east Med were around ...
Tuesday, 30 October 12
COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE BY FIVE PERCENT IN 2013 - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) chairman Bob Kamandanu has estimated that Indonesian coal production will ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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