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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
Tuesday, 23 October 12
INDONESIA SETS DMO FOR NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared the quantity of coal to be supplied to domestic market in 2013 recently under DMO regulation. ...
Sunday, 21 October 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 25.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL YEAR TO DATE
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 33.2 million bcm* (+5.5% YoY) of Overburden in September 2012 totaled while coal produc ...
Saturday, 20 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FLAT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market continued to be quite active with quite lot of cargoes fixed for in the cape and panamax sector.
The BDI was ...
Thursday, 18 October 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA FIXED AT USD 11000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Cont to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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