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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Wednesday, 11 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL SUBDUED, RECOVERY NOT YET SEEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market entered the new week after the past days of easter holidays in western countries in a subdued mood. The industry’s benchma ...
Monday, 09 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first week of April ended with the Baltic Dry Index falling below 950 points, before Catholic Easter, and capesizes showing a modest upturn with ...
Sunday, 08 April 12
CHARTER RATES COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was almost at same levels closing slightly lower by 0.64 pct at 928 points.
The Cape index was up by 6.73 pct closing at ...
Friday, 06 April 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall to lowest level since January 2011 this month. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in April fal ...
Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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