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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Sunday, 15 April 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES FOR SUPRAMAX IN SE ASIA SAW SOME SOFTENING OF CHARTER RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seem to be holding and except for Supramax and handy size index all other index was up with BDI up by 4.74 pct closing at ...
Friday, 13 April 12
MINERS OPPOSE GOVTS EXPORT TAX PLAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian mining companies have strongly protested the government’s plan to impose a 25 percent export tax on ...
Friday, 13 April 12
S&P CAUTIONS AGAINST NEW INDONESIAN MINING REGULATIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Investors may have expressed concerns about looming new mining regulations, but ratings agency Standard & Poor& ...
Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. ...
Wednesday, 11 April 12
TWO PERCENT OF IBP CONCESSION CONTAINS 42 MMT OF COAL
COALspot.com - 42.35 million ton of coal found in just 2% of PT Insani Bara Perkasa’s total concession area of 24,477 hectare.
Accord ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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