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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 20 April 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.6 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2012
COALspot.com - BUMA has removed 28.0 million bcm (+6.4% YoY) of overburden in March 2012 while coal production was at 2.6 million tons (+1.3% YoY).
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Thursday, 19 April 12
FRESH COAL SALES FROM JATENERGYS JONGKANG MINES
COALspot.com - Energy company Jatenergy Ltd (ASX code JAT) announced today that it had signed a contract for an 11,000 tonne coal sale due for shipm ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
HANDY - 'POSITIVE TREND', PANAMAX - 'A FIRMER TENDENCY', CAPESIZE - 'AGAIN NEGATIVE'
Handy
The positive trend from last week continued, with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw/Passero del fixed tick above USD 4000 for US Gulf di ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
WILLIS MARINE MARKET REVIEW FORECASTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT YEAR - WILLIS GLOBAL MARINE / HELLENIC SHIPPING
After an inauspicious start, 2012 could well be "another difficult and uncertain year for the maritime industry faced with the aftermath of the ...
Wednesday, 18 April 12
INDONESIA TO INTRODUCE EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL ORES BY 6 MAY 2012
The Indonesian government is scheduled to issue regulation on export duty for minerals before May 6, 2012.
According to Bisnis Indonesia, as quot ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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