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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 1.15 MILLION TONS OF 5000 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.125million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open tender ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 375,000 MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 375,000 metric tons of low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
ADK SHIPPED 28,000 TONNES OF COAL THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced that four coal barges carrying a total of approximately 28,000 tonnes of ADK (Alam Duta K ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
DRY BULK CARRIERS RENTER FLEET AFTER IDLING, ON MARKETS RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems to be back on track, not only solidifying the gains of the past couple of weeks, but also racing to new heights, recuperra ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
PANAMAXES AGAIN EARN MORE THAN CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of demand for Panamaxes has led the dry bulk market to new higher ground on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching 1,090 ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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