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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Thursday, 05 April 12
COAL EXPORT TAX: MATTER OF CONCERN FOR INDIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Since the issuance of Indonesian Mining law in 2009, miners have increased their activities in exploring , ex ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
AKR COAL FIRST EXPORT SHIPMENT OF COAL SEABORNE
PT Anugrah Karya Raya (AKR Coal) subsidiary of PT AKR Corporindo Tbk., Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and larg ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STALLS AS TREND IS REVERSED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has halted its month-long rally, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating yesterday for a second consecutive session. Industry ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
OIL MAY JUMP TO $150PB IF IRAN ATTACKED: EXPERT - KUNA / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Prices of oil will not drop below level of $100 per barrel and may jump to $150 pb in the coming two months, according to the prominent Kuwaiti expe ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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