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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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