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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the ...
Monday, 26 March 12
GOLDEN MINES FY11 REVENUE JUMPS 209% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), that is controlled by Sinar Mas Group, recorded a 209% jump in revenue ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
AUSTRALIA'S MINERAL TAX : BENCHMARK FOR OTHER COUNTRIES - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Natural resources rich counties like Australia , Indonesia , South Africa , Brazil etc are going through a spectacular resources boom ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATES WAS AT CAPESIZE $ 4,546 PER DAY VS SUPRAMAX / $ 10,819 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI crossed 900 points this week closing at 908 points up by 3.89 pct. All other sectors were up except for cape index whic ...
Thursday, 22 March 12
ECI-CHINA HANDY RATES ARE AROUND US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another positive trend was seen last week with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw-Passero/US Gulf climbed slowly up to USD 3700, while US ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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