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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 22 June 12
GLOBAL ACTION NEEDED ON ENERGY POVERTY - WORLD COAL
Eradicating energy poverty is possibly the biggest challenge facing the world today. Like climate change it can only be addressed with a concerted g ...
Friday, 22 June 12
COAL: THE BACKBONE OF MODERN ELECTRICITY - ECOAL
Coal has been described as the "forgotten fuel," perhaps because many aren't aware of the huge role it plays in powering the global econo ...
Thursday, 21 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was on the rise once again yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry’s benchmark, rising by 18 points, or 1 ...
Wednesday, 20 June 12
BDI MOVING HIGHER, PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX VESSELS STRONGER, CAPESIZE RATES NEAR TO HISTORICAL LOWS OF DECEMBER 2008 - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry market seems to follow the dynamic of the previous week with the Baltic Dry Index showing daily increases since June 8th, but is still stand ...
Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straigh ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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