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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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