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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Sunday, 17 June 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES ARE LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI gained some increase after continues fall for several weeks.
The BDI increased by 47 points (up by 5.36 pct) closing at 92 ...
Saturday, 16 June 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT SWAPS ARE UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries seems to be under pressure this week.&nbs ...
Friday, 15 June 12
CAPESIZE - THE LEVELS THAT DID FIX ARE DOWN W-O-W LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another slow-moving market with rates hovering at same level as last week. US Gulf positions fixed USD 25,000 for trips to Cont/Passero and S ...
Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affe ...
Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, alth ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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