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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Wednesday, 27 June 12
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA INTRODUCES ON-LINE SYSTEM FOR MINING PRODUCTS EXPORT APPROVAL
COALspot.com - Directorate General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia has released "Clear and Clean" certificate for another 33 coal miners ...
Monday, 25 June 12
RIO TINTO MAKES FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM MOZAMBIQUE
Rio Tinto has started exporting premium hard coking coal from its Benga Mine in the Moatize Basin in Mozambique. The first shipment of 34,000 tonnes ...
Sunday, 24 June 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FIRMED UP FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments gained and marked was firm in the Supramax and Handy size sector, where as the Cape and Panamax inde ...
Saturday, 23 June 12
COAL PRICES APPETITE FOR ROLLER-COASTER RIDES
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have suffered something of a roller-coaster ride in terms of prices during this week. SGX’s Indone ...
Friday, 22 June 12
PRESENT SPOT WEAKNESS IS TEMPORARY, SEASONAL AND RISE AS WINTER APPROACHES - BUMI
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk, the world’s one of the largest coal producer and Indonesia’s largest multi grade coal miner has no ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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