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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Thursday, 05 July 12
BUMI ACHIEVES HIGHER SELLING PRICE IN FIRST QUARTER
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), Indonesia's largest coal producer and exporter, has successfully maintained a higher sales margin, des ...
Tuesday, 03 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET INCHED FORWARD AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched forward at the beginning of the new week, prior to the US holidays regarding the celebration of the 4th of July, which is ...
Monday, 02 July 12
ORPHEUS STRENGTHENS REVENUE STREAM WITH NEW ROYALTY AGREEMENT AT THE B2 COAL PROJECT
Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) is pleased to advise that it has executed a life of mine Royalty Agreement with Indonesian mining contractor PT Debbia Mini ...
Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billio ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
AUSTRALIAS CARBON TAX - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Climate Change
Climate change and global warming have now become buzzwords the world over. The disastrous consequences for global ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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