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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Saturday, 07 July 12
EXCESS SUPPLY & WEAK DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps for August and Q4 deliveries slipped slightly this week. SGX’s Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swap ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
BALTIC INDEX UP ON STRONG CAPE, PANAMAX RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments were firmed up with BDI up by 15.23 pct (up by 153 points) closing at 1,157 points.
The cape index also ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET NOT ABLE TO FIND SOLID GROUND SAY EXPERTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the second half of each, traditionally looking the most active one, especially in terms of newbuildings being delivered, it's highly unlikely ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
GOVT GETS READY FOR $1.8B SUIT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, several ministries and the Attorney General’s Office held a ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET MOVES FURTHER UP THE HILL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its growth momentum by the middle of the week, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose by an additional 40 points to 1,103 p ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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