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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Thursday, 12 July 12
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES ANNOUNCES NOTICE OF INVESTMENT DISPUTE FILED AGAINST MONGOLIAN GOVERNMENT
Press Release - SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) (“SouthGobi”) announced today that SGQ Coal Investment Pte. Ltd., a wholly ...
Wednesday, 11 July 12
HBA DROPPED SHARPLY IN JULY
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell to lowest level since September 2010 in July 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this mon ...
Wednesday, 11 July 12
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 1.26 PER TON
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia Coal decline for a second day yesterday, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps. The prices for shipments to ...
Tuesday, 10 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET RECORDS MODEST GAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ending the session up by 5 points to 1,162. Most markets were hig ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
INDONESIA-JAPAN RELATIONS TURN SOUR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, the one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, Bilateral relations between Indonesia and Japan have recently ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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