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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Wednesday, 18 July 12
SHIP PRICES HAVE FALLEN RAPIDLY THIS YEAR, FAVORING INVESTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The price for a 5 year old Capesize dry bulk carrier of 172,000 dwt has fallen to about $33,4mil from $42.9 at the end of June 2011, while at end of ...
Saturday, 14 July 12
FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO BE QUITE VOLATILE - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seems to be quite volatile with the trend changing almost every week. This week all the segments were down except for Pana ...
Friday, 13 July 12
TRANSCOAL MINERGY HAS RECEIVED PMA STATUS IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - PT Transcoal Minergy (“TCM”) has received official foreign owned company status from the Capital Investment Coordinating ...
Thursday, 12 July 12
LACK OF CAPESIZE DEMAND DRAGS DRY BULK MARKET LOWER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lack of demand for the larger Capesize dry bulk carriers had as a result the fall of the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), w ...
Thursday, 12 July 12
RIO TINTO'S SENIOR MANAGEMENT CHANGES
COALspot.com - Rio Tinto is making changes to its senior management team as chief financial officer (CFO) Guy Elliott has decided to retire at the e ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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