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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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