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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL SUBDUED, RECOVERY NOT YET SEEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market entered the new week after the past days of easter holidays in western countries in a subdued mood. The industry’s benchma ...
Monday, 09 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first week of April ended with the Baltic Dry Index falling below 950 points, before Catholic Easter, and capesizes showing a modest upturn with ...
Sunday, 08 April 12
CHARTER RATES COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was almost at same levels closing slightly lower by 0.64 pct at 928 points.
The Cape index was up by 6.73 pct closing at ...
Friday, 06 April 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall to lowest level since January 2011 this month. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in April fal ...
Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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