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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL SUBDUED, RECOVERY NOT YET SEEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market entered the new week after the past days of easter holidays in western countries in a subdued mood. The industry’s benchma ...
Monday, 09 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first week of April ended with the Baltic Dry Index falling below 950 points, before Catholic Easter, and capesizes showing a modest upturn with ...
Sunday, 08 April 12
CHARTER RATES COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was almost at same levels closing slightly lower by 0.64 pct at 928 points.
The Cape index was up by 6.73 pct closing at ...
Friday, 06 April 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall to lowest level since January 2011 this month. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in April fal ...
Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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