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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL SUBDUED, RECOVERY NOT YET SEEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market entered the new week after the past days of easter holidays in western countries in a subdued mood. The industry’s benchma ...
Monday, 09 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first week of April ended with the Baltic Dry Index falling below 950 points, before Catholic Easter, and capesizes showing a modest upturn with ...
Sunday, 08 April 12
CHARTER RATES COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was almost at same levels closing slightly lower by 0.64 pct at 928 points.
The Cape index was up by 6.73 pct closing at ...
Friday, 06 April 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall to lowest level since January 2011 this month. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in April fal ...
Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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