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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 April 12
COAL EXPORT TAX: MATTER OF CONCERN FOR INDIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Since the issuance of Indonesian Mining law in 2009, miners have increased their activities in exploring , ex ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
AKR COAL FIRST EXPORT SHIPMENT OF COAL SEABORNE
PT Anugrah Karya Raya (AKR Coal) subsidiary of PT AKR Corporindo Tbk., Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and larg ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STALLS AS TREND IS REVERSED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has halted its month-long rally, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating yesterday for a second consecutive session. Industry ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
OIL MAY JUMP TO $150PB IF IRAN ATTACKED: EXPERT - KUNA / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Prices of oil will not drop below level of $100 per barrel and may jump to $150 pb in the coming two months, according to the prominent Kuwaiti expe ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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