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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 April 12
COAL EXPORT TAX: MATTER OF CONCERN FOR INDIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Since the issuance of Indonesian Mining law in 2009, miners have increased their activities in exploring , ex ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
AKR COAL FIRST EXPORT SHIPMENT OF COAL SEABORNE
PT Anugrah Karya Raya (AKR Coal) subsidiary of PT AKR Corporindo Tbk., Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and larg ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STALLS AS TREND IS REVERSED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has halted its month-long rally, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating yesterday for a second consecutive session. Industry ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
OIL MAY JUMP TO $150PB IF IRAN ATTACKED: EXPERT - KUNA / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Prices of oil will not drop below level of $100 per barrel and may jump to $150 pb in the coming two months, according to the prominent Kuwaiti expe ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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