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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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