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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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