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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the ...
Monday, 26 March 12
GOLDEN MINES FY11 REVENUE JUMPS 209% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), that is controlled by Sinar Mas Group, recorded a 209% jump in revenue ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
AUSTRALIA'S MINERAL TAX : BENCHMARK FOR OTHER COUNTRIES - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Natural resources rich counties like Australia , Indonesia , South Africa , Brazil etc are going through a spectacular resources boom ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATES WAS AT CAPESIZE $ 4,546 PER DAY VS SUPRAMAX / $ 10,819 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI crossed 900 points this week closing at 908 points up by 3.89 pct. All other sectors were up except for cape index whic ...
Thursday, 22 March 12
ECI-CHINA HANDY RATES ARE AROUND US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another positive trend was seen last week with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw-Passero/US Gulf climbed slowly up to USD 3700, while US ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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