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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS SURGING, CAPESIZES FALLING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what seems to be an establishing pattern, the dry bulk market has kept its upward momentum, edging closer to the 900 point-mark, but the larger s ...
Wednesday, 21 March 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2012
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur's overburden removal in February 2012 has reached totaled 23.8 million bcm (+2.4% YoY) while coal production ...
Tuesday, 20 March 12
SMALLER DRY BULK VESSELS STILL LEADING DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been growing during the past couple of weeks, but contrary to the usual practice, it’s not the larger Capesizes which ...
Monday, 19 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW: SMALLER VESSELS LEAD RATES HIGHER - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The upward trend of the Baltic Dry Index persists strong from the end of February, spurred from the supramax market that offsets the weakness in the ...
Sunday, 18 March 12
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT IN 2011 ROSE 54% TO US$ 339.56 MILLION
COALspot.com - Company revenue for the period January - December 2011 amounting to Rp 10.6 trillion (approximately US$ 1,164,835,164.84) recorded an ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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