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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
COKAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN DEVELOPING INFRASTRUCTURE TO FACILITATE METALLURGICAL COAL PRODUCTION
Global coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU’s) to develop two river ports and two small scale coa ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
CLARIFICATION OF GR 24 OF 2012 REQUIRING DIVESTMENT OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OVER TIME
ASX Announcement
Global metallurgical coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), is responding to the recent announcement of the Indonesian Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
EUROPEAN COAL CONTANGO: FURTHER STEEPNESS REQUIRED TO MAKE LARGE SCALE PHYSICAL TIME SPREAD ARBITRAGE MORE ATTRACTIVE - MISWIN MAHESH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
COALspot.com - "With the contango between the Y+1 and M+1 ARA delivered contract now averaging above the $14/t level, there is an increasing in ...
Monday, 12 March 12
DELTA DUNIA 1M OVERBURDEN DROPS 3.1% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) reported a 25 million bank ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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