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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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