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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 20 April 12
PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A rebound of demand for smaller dry bulk carriers has led the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) above the 1,000-point mark for ...
Friday, 20 April 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.6 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2012
COALspot.com - BUMA has removed 28.0 million bcm (+6.4% YoY) of overburden in March 2012 while coal production was at 2.6 million tons (+1.3% YoY).
...
Thursday, 19 April 12
FRESH COAL SALES FROM JATENERGYS JONGKANG MINES
COALspot.com - Energy company Jatenergy Ltd (ASX code JAT) announced today that it had signed a contract for an 11,000 tonne coal sale due for shipm ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
HANDY - 'POSITIVE TREND', PANAMAX - 'A FIRMER TENDENCY', CAPESIZE - 'AGAIN NEGATIVE'
Handy
The positive trend from last week continued, with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw/Passero del fixed tick above USD 4000 for US Gulf di ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
WILLIS MARINE MARKET REVIEW FORECASTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT YEAR - WILLIS GLOBAL MARINE / HELLENIC SHIPPING
After an inauspicious start, 2012 could well be "another difficult and uncertain year for the maritime industry faced with the aftermath of the ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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