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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 20 April 12
PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A rebound of demand for smaller dry bulk carriers has led the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) above the 1,000-point mark for ...
Friday, 20 April 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.6 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2012
COALspot.com - BUMA has removed 28.0 million bcm (+6.4% YoY) of overburden in March 2012 while coal production was at 2.6 million tons (+1.3% YoY).
...
Thursday, 19 April 12
FRESH COAL SALES FROM JATENERGYS JONGKANG MINES
COALspot.com - Energy company Jatenergy Ltd (ASX code JAT) announced today that it had signed a contract for an 11,000 tonne coal sale due for shipm ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
HANDY - 'POSITIVE TREND', PANAMAX - 'A FIRMER TENDENCY', CAPESIZE - 'AGAIN NEGATIVE'
Handy
The positive trend from last week continued, with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw/Passero del fixed tick above USD 4000 for US Gulf di ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
WILLIS MARINE MARKET REVIEW FORECASTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT YEAR - WILLIS GLOBAL MARINE / HELLENIC SHIPPING
After an inauspicious start, 2012 could well be "another difficult and uncertain year for the maritime industry faced with the aftermath of the ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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