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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Sunday, 15 January 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BLEED - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to bleed with BDI touching almost 1000 points , almost reaching the collapse of 2008 levels," said C ...
Saturday, 14 January 12
GOLDEN MINES TO SUPPLY 4 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner under Sinarmas Group PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DS ...
Friday, 13 January 12
DIFFICULT START OF 2012 FOR DRY BULK MARKET SEEN HARD TO CHANGE IN THE COURSE OF THE YEAR, UNLESS DEMOLITION PICKS UP
The dry bulk market has been on a freefall this week after a rocky start to the new year. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry's benc ...
Thursday, 12 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET CRASHING AT START OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept being on freefall mode yesterday, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) losing a massive 5.17% on ...
Wednesday, 11 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS DECLINE, AS SHIP OWNERS REALIZE OVERSUPPLY WILL "KILL" THEM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With 2012 now underway, it will be rather interesting to see how ship owners will play the "newbuilding ordering" card to their favor, as ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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