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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 19 January 12
14TH VOGP MEETING IN HO CHI MINH CITY HANDS OUT LATEST UPDATES AND DEVELOPMENTS IN VIETNAM'S ENERGY INDUSTRY
Press Release: At upcoming 14th Vietnam Oil Gas Power on 27-28 Feb in Ho Chi Minh City the industry’s most influential names including Petrovi ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
DELTA DUNIA SEALS US$820 MIO CONTRACT INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ( ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
WARM WINTER ACROSS EUROPE HAS IMPACTED NEGATIVELY COAL DEMAND - BRS
With the Chinese New Year just a week away, all markets are slowing down. The drop in freight rates for all sizes has been significant over the past ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET'S DRAMA CONTINUES IN START OF NEW WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A flurry of newbuilding deliveries, coupled with a slow start to the new year, a typical trend for the dry bulk market, has led the industry's benc ...
Monday, 16 January 12
BUMA MINED 2.7 MILLION TONS COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - BUMA has mined 2.7 million tons (-14.1% YoY) coal last month and removed 25.8 million bcm (-5.6% YoY) overburden, according to compan ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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