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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Thursday, 26 January 12
ABM INVESTAMA SEALS US$100 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Reswara Minergi Hartama, a subsidary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), has sealed a 2 million tons of coal export co ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNFALL KNOWS NO LIMITS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s demise seems to have no visible end, as China’s Lunar Year Holidays continue this week, thus leaving demand with n ...
Wednesday, 25 January 12
CLEAN AND CLEAR MINING PERMITS TO BE COMPLETED END OF 2012 - BISNIS.COM
Bisnis.com reported that, the government plans to announce 700 mining permits with "clean and clear" status without overlapping on other p ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
ANOTHER SEVERE DROP IN THE CAPESIZE - BRS
The lunar year celebrations and the high number of new building deliveries (more than 35 Capes so far in January as owners push 2011 deliveries into ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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