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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Tuesday, 31 January 12
THERE ARE MANY GOOD REASONS FOR COAL IN GERMANY - DR CIESLIK
COALspot.com - "The year 2011 was again marked by many changes on the markets and energy policies, at times in line with expectations, but at o ...
Tuesday, 31 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING FOR WORST MONTH IN YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn't manage to put a halt in its downfall, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), posting yet another fa ...
Monday, 30 January 12
CHINA'S HUNGER FOR COAL LEAVES DENT IN PENNSYLVANIA'S SUPPLY - THOMAS LESKIN
With the price of heating oil on the rise, one of Pennsylvania's greatest natural resources - coal - is in high demand, and not just locally.
Et ...
Saturday, 28 January 12
WILL FREIGHT MARKET STABILIZE FROM NEXT WEEK?
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften with BDI at 663 points down by 15.78 pct closing at 726 points and cape index was down by 5.73 pct cl ...
Friday, 27 January 12
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY NEEDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS YEAR AS WELL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of vessels in most shipping sectors is so intense that it’s become clear to ship owners that unless they scrap as many of their ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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