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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Saturday, 04 February 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 6,000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften which dropped by almost 11 pct and BDI closing at 647 points.
The drop in BDI was mainly due to dr ...
Thursday, 02 February 12
NO RELIEF YET FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although at the start of 2012 nobody can claim that the global seaborne trade has suddenly come to a halt, quite the contrary, it seems that the dry ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT - GOING DEEP TO SOAR HIGH
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port now rightfully claims as the deepest draft port in India, as it has started accepting vessels with maximum permiss ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
IN JAMBI, MOST MINING COMPANIES LACK 'CLEAR-AND-CLEAN' PERMITS - JP
More than three-quarters of the 386 mining companies in Jambi lack “clear-and-clean” certifications from the government, according to an ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
2% OF IBPS TOTAL CONCESSION AREA CONTAINS TOTAL COAL RESOURCE OF 56.1 MILLION TON
COALspot.com - PT. Britmindo, a mine consulting firm, has finalized PT. Insani Bara Perkasa (IBP) first JORC (Joint Ore Reserves Committee) res ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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