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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Sunday, 22 January 12
FREIGHT MARKET DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2008
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to soften almost reaching 2008 levels breaking the 1,000 point mark", said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Sh ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
ASIAS PREMIER COMPREHENSIVE OPEN CUT MINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULED FOR FEBRUARY 2012
As the only such conference in the region for miners and service providers, IBC Asia’s Open Cut Mine Planning & Operational Excellence con ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
COAL MARKETS CELEBRATES A DECADE OF BRINGING BUYERS & SELLERS TOGETHER
In 2012, IBC Asia’s premier Coal Markets conference series – Asia’s only globally focused coal import, export and supply chain eve ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
SAMIN TAN COMPLETES BUMI PLC TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesian coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN), that is controlled by stellar businessm ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES SELLS MORE THAN FOUR MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2011, 58% MORE THAN 2010
COALspot.com - SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) has successfully complets year 2011 on guidance in terms of coal sales and production.
...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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