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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Tuesday, 10 January 12
THE 4TH DEEPWATER ASIA CONGRESS 2012 WILL KICK OFF ON MAY 23 - 25
Press release - Based on the past three years’ success, SZ & W Group is excited to announce the 4th Deepwater Asia Congress will be held o ...
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of s ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
ICICI OUTLOOK ON INDIAN POWER, MINING,CEMENT, AND SHIPPING SECTORS PERFORMANCE IN 2012
Broking firm, ICICIdirect (India) has come out with report on sectors outlook for 2012. IRIS has collated key highlights for each sector from ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
Wish You a Very Happy and Prosperous New year 2012.
COALspot.com - The last report by us was on 16th Dec 2011 and because of holidays this would ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
THARPAK CONSORTIUM FORMED TO DEVELOP MEGA ENERGY COMPLEX IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN
Press Release: On January 5th, TharPak, LLC met with officials of the Embassy of Pakistan in Washington DC to introduce and announce the formation o ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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