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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Saturday, 07 January 12
COAL MARKETS SEE FALLING SPOT PRICES
COALspot.com – World’s thermal coal spot prices have slipped this week..
globalCOAL index in Newcastle Port, benchmark for Asian mark ...
Friday, 06 January 12
COAL INDIA LINKED COAL PRICES WITH INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES
COALspot.com - Consumers of indigenous coal in India to pay International prices in the future. Coal India has recently moved from UHV pricing mecha ...
Friday, 06 January 12
CLARIDEN GLOBAL BRINGS YOU INDONESIA MINING 2012
Capitalizing Business & Investment Opportunities in an Uncertain Market.Press Release - Clariden Global brings you Indonesia Mining 2012, the dedi ...
Friday, 06 January 12
THE PANAMAX MARKET EXPERIENCED A SLOW START TO 2012 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
As usual after a holiday owners and charterers both try to get a feel of the market. An Armada of Supras were talking to ballast towards USG, ...
Thursday, 05 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET TAKES A PLUNGE OF LOW ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was widely expected the first days of the new year are characterized by significantly low chartering across the board of the dry bulk market, pus ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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