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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Sunday, 01 January 12
IS INDIA FOLLOWING INDONESIA TO STANDARDIZE COAL PRICES TO GET MAXIMUM BENEFITS?
COALspot.com - Coal India limited, an Indian state owned and world largest coal producer has introduced gross calorific value (GCV) based pricing me ...
Saturday, 31 December 11
GLOBALCOAL NEWC INDEX SURGED 2.32 PERCENT
COALspot.com - globalCOAL index in Newcastle Port, benchmark for Asian market, ended substantially higher, surged 2.32 percent to US$115.47 per ...
Saturday, 31 December 11
BORNEO LUMBUNG TO BUY BUMI STAKE, SWAP CEO - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported yesterday, shareholders of Indonesian coking coal miner Borneo Lumbun ...
Friday, 30 December 11
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ISSUE PERMITS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, business associations from both the palm oil and mining sectors have suggested that the central government should re ...
Thursday, 29 December 11
NEW VESSELS DELIVERED ARE FLOODING THE OCEANS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected 2011 has been the year that newbuilding deliveries peaked and kept "flooding" the market, thus supressing freight rates and er ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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