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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Tuesday, 27 December 11
MINERS MAKE CASE FOR RESUMING CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, problems with the renegotiation of mining contracts in the country are far from over, as agreements on several cruci ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
COAL SHIPMENT OF TIANJIN PORT REACHED 6.72 MLN TONNES IN NOVEMBER - STEEL HOME / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tianjin port shipped 6.72 million tonnes of coal in November, decreasing 600,000 tonnes versus 7.32 million tonnes in October, while up 21.09% or 1. ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
NEW CLAUSE PUBLISHED FOR SLOW STEAMING - BIMCO
Many owners and operators faced with high bunker prices are considering implementing slow steaming regimes to save fuel and to assist with capacity ...
Monday, 26 December 11
NEW EXPORT TAX PLAN GREETED WITH PRAISE AND CRITICISM - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the Indonesia's leading english news paper reported that, both praise and criticism showered the government’s plan t ...
Sunday, 25 December 11
THERMAL COAL PRICES GAINED UP TO 4.32 PERCENT
COALspot.com - globalCOAL index gained 4.32 percent to US$106.36 per ton in RBCT, benchmark for South Asia and West Europe markets, for the week end ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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