We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 24 December 11
CHINAS LEVEL OF GROWTH TO DETERMINE COURSE OF DRY BULK MARKET IN 2012 SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest report, shipbroker Intermodal attempted to find a silver lining in the tough year that was 2011, as well as what one could expect from ...
Friday, 23 December 11
SPOT PACIFIC CAPESIZE VESSELS HAVE COMMANDED HIGH PREMIUMS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Rates in the Atlantic kept stable from last week, with a touch of negativity closer to the end. Less spot cargoes seen, and owners are ...
Friday, 23 December 11
CONTENTIOUS ISSUES IN CONTRACT RENEGOTIATION - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has been renegotiating mining contracts, especially those 30-40 years old, with almost all mining companies, including PT Freeport In ...
Friday, 23 December 11
LANCO JOINS HANDS WITH BUKIT ASAM FOR INDONESIAN POWER PROJECT
COALspot.com - PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam, Indonesia's state owned coal miner and Indian based Lanco Infratech Ltd plans to build steam power p ...
Thursday, 22 December 11
RI WILL NOT PLAY CATCH-UP WITH GLOBAL COAL DEMAND - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted in its Coal Market Report 2011 that over the next five years, gl ...
|
|
|
Showing 4916 to 4920 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
