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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Saturday, 17 December 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO HAVE ALMOST BOTTOMED OUT AND MAY REMAIN STEADY AT THESE LEVELS CAPT REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index closed lower this week with BDI closing at 1,888 points (down by 1.76 pct) and Cape index at 3,572 points (dow ...
Friday, 16 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES TRACK ON CAPESIZE LOSSES, SHIP FINANCING REMAINS TROUBLESOME - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn’t manage to sustain earlier gains, losing track yesterday, on reduced Capesize demand and persisting troubles in smal ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
BERAU SEES INDIA AS POTENTIAL MARKET FOR LOW-CALORIE COAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Publicly listed coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), the fifth largest coal producer in Indonesia, sees ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
PANAMAX HARDLY AFFECTED BY THE RECENT FIRMER TENDENCY FOR THE BIG SISTERS - FEARNBULK
Handy
The rates are more or less the same as last week. Continent/US Gulf fixing at tick below USD 10k and Gulf/Continent levels at USD 25k. Trips ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply w ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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