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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Monday, 12 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR BALANCE AS WE ENTER 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
During the past few months, freight rates for dry bulk carriers, especially Capesizes have increased significantly, providing ship owners with a muc ...
Sunday, 11 December 11
THE PANAMAX INDEX ENDED ON POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index continued the upward trend this week also with BDI up by 3.00 pct closing at 1,922 points and Cape index up by ...
Saturday, 10 December 11
MAHAKAM RIVER RESUMES COAL TRANSPORTATION
COALspot.com - East Kalimantan local government has resumed limited coal barging through Mahakam River after two weeks of suspension following the c ...
Friday, 09 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUNDS ON HEALTHIER DEMAND OUTLOOK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged forward yesterday, at the highest rate of the past couple of weeks, as a result of stonger iron ore demand, backed by lowe ...
Thursday, 08 December 11
INDIA MAY SEE 41% ANNUAL GROWTH OF ITS COAL DEMAND DURING THE NEXT 5 YEARS - ICAP SHIPPING
India’s Ministry of Coal expects that India’s coal demand may face an annual 41% rise during the next 5 years, while its coal deficit is ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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