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Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by 2030 will be driven by China at 1btpa and India at 400mtpa
At Coaltrans India today, Wood Mackenzie said that a significant growth in demand for seaborne thermal coal from China and India- the top two demand drivers by 2030, will lead to a change in global trade patterns. The increase in the seaborne trade will ensure the long-term security of thermal coal supply in the Asian region. Despite forecast ample supply, Wood Mackenzie indicated that investors and buyers should expect prices to stay at traditionally high levels over the foreseeable future.
Mr. Prakash Sharma, Presenter and Coal Market Analyst says, “China has evolved rapidly to become the world’s largest thermal coal importer with seaborne demand set to grow from 175 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2011 to 1billion tonnes per annum (btpa) by 2030. India is also set to overtake Japan as the second largest consumer of thermal seaborne coal by 2030, growing from approximately 80 mtpa in 2011 to 400 mtpa. India’s demand may be even higher if domestic supply is constrained by delays in associated rail and port infrastructure projects.”
A major expansion in global thermal coal trade, concentrated on Asia and driven by demand from both China and India, is expected over the next 20 years. Rapid economic expansion will fuel demand for electricity, and the heavy reliance of Asian economies on coal will lead to an increase in trade flows. In the near-term, the market will be tight but a significant growth of thermal seaborne supply is expected to come from existing and emerging basins, creating a change in trade flows that will feed long-term demand.
Mr. Sharma says, “With Asia at the centre of future thermal coal import requirements, current Pacific Basin suppliers will be first in line to benefit. Waiting in the wings though are emergent players some of which, particularly in Australia and the US, will make up a significant portion of their region’s future supply growth.”
“The emerging basins to keep an eye on are Australia’s Surat and Galilee basins, Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra basins as well as basins in Mozambique, Mongolia, Russia’s Far East, and the west coast of the United States. South African coal will continue its migration from Europe to Asian markets, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers such as Colombia and the eastern US will also participate, albeit marginally.”
Despite aggressive expansions in thermal coal supply, long-term prices will defy expectations of a drop in prices, instead remaining high in the seaborne market. There may be short term seasonal fluctuations such as a dip in Q2 prices this year due to economic uncertainty but in the long-term, the Newcastle reference coal price will increase progressively and is forecast to remain above free on board (FOB) US$120/t in real 2011 US dollar terms.
The high prices can be attributed firstly to higher production costs and the substantial investment required in new mines and supporting infrastructure development particularly for new reserves from significant emerging basins. These are in remote regions far away from exiting port facilities. Secondly, cost pressures come from changing fiscal regimes such as the carbon tax in Australia and minimum export price regulations in Indonesia. Lastly, Wood Mackenzie expects a declining trend in export thermal coal quality as large volumes of low rank coals from Indonesia enter the seaborne market.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, “Demand for seaborne thermal coal will grow exponentially from now until 2030, particularly as a result of China and India’s needs. While this demand will find supply from a change in trade flow patterns, we think that prices will not weaken with the oncoming supply. Rather, cost pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and a decrease in export coal quality all combine to hold prices at traditionally high levels.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.
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Thursday, 08 December 11
HAREDA KRIDA GETS CONTRACT FROM BAYAN - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN), through its subsidiary dubbed PT Gunungbayan Pratamacoal (GPB), has signed ...
Thursday, 08 December 11
CAPESIZES LIFT DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize vessels yesterday helped lift the dry bulk market which had been falling since the start of the week on lower cargo demand. As a result the ...
Wednesday, 07 December 11
ABM INVESTAMA EYES RP6.3 TRIO REVENUE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, an energy integrated company PT ABM Investama Tbk is eyeing a 1.5 folds increase in revenue this year from Rp4. ...
Tuesday, 06 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS RALLY, STARTS WEEK WITH FALL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After a series of increases which saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing close to 1,900 points and rates o ...
Monday, 05 December 11
THE DECEMBER HBA FELL 11% FROM ITS PEAK AT US$127.05 PER TON IN FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has sets the December 2011 coal reference price at US$ 112.67 per ton US$ 3.98 ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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